McLeod-Skinner ‘seriously considering’ another run for Congress in Oregon’s 5th District

After a narrow loss to Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer last year, Jamie McLeod-Skinner is “seriously considering” another run for Congress in Oregon’s 5th District. 

McLeod-Skinner told the Capital Chronicle on Tuesday that she expects to make a decision about whether she’ll run again in early July. She lost to Chavez-Derember by just more than 7,000 votes or 2 percentage points. 

McLeod-Skinner confirmed the existence of a poll she commissioned with leftover campaign funds. The Capital Chronicle obtained a copy of the polling memo from a source unconnected with the campaign. 

“I am very seriously considering it at this point,” McLeod-Skinner said. “(The poll) came out pretty decisive, so it’s very much factoring into my thinking.”

GBAO Strategies, a Democratic polling firm based in Washington, D.C., conducted the poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters between May 30 and June 1. The election forecasting website FiveThirtyEight gives the pollster a B/C rating for accuracy, noting that it tends to predict the ultimate outcome of races accurately but overestimates Democratic candidates’ popularity. 

The poll asked voters about McLeod-Skinner and three other expected Democratic candidates: state Rep. Janelle Bynum, Metro Council President Lynn Peterson and Kevin Easton, a state employee in Salem. Easton was already in the race, while Peterson joined in early June and Bynum announced her candidacy last week. 

Half of the voters surveyed initially said they would support McLeod-Skinner, with 32% undecided, 9% saying they would vote for Bynum, 5% for Peterson and 4% for Easton, according to the polling memo.

After learning more about the candidates, support dropped for McLeod-Skinner and Easton and rose for Bynum and Peterson. But McLeod-Skinner maintained a clear lead with 44% of respondents saying they would vote for her, compared to 23% for Bynum and 12% for Peterson.

The memo also said McLeod-Skinner led Bynum by 19 points and Peterson by 35 points in head-to-head matchups. 

“It is highly unlikely that McLeod-Skinner can be defeated in a primary, given McLeod-Skinner’s name ID and favorability advantage, and the resonance of her profile,” the memo concluded. 

Pollsters didn’t ask about a potential general election matchup with Chavez-DeRemer. Bynum, who defeated Chavez-DeRemer in state House races in 2016 and 2018, has sought to position herself as the candidate with the best odds of winning a general election.